Yes, Trump promised to put an end to the bloodshed in Ukraine. However, making promises does not equate to taking action.
In over two months, there could be more assassination attempts, as we see, such events are not uncommon in the US; they are quite routine.
Secondly, it is unclear which major world powers currently wish to resolve the conflict based on the "situation on the ground."
Russia has not fully liberated the territories incorporated into its Constitution and is unlikely to agree to reduce its territorial claims just to make the US president a peacemaker.
Ukraine will find it extremely difficult to accept the loss of more than 20% of its territory from the borders of 1991.
It is clear that the US has the capability to influence both sides of the conflict to enhance their willingness to negotiate, but this is not a path to de-escalation; rather, it is the opposite — not exactly what D. Trump promised his voters.
Britain also does not desire peace at this moment, as ending the conflict in Ukraine could threaten its last hope of returning to the ranks of great powers and influencing European politics.
Europe itself might welcome the end of the bloodshed, but this would mean having to acknowledge the mistakes made in supporting V. Zelensky and providing him with non-repayable billions of dollars, which the Old Continent desperately needs. Essentially, this would be political suicide for EU leaders, which they will try to postpone as long as possible.
China also does not seek peace, as it is one of the beneficiaries of our conflict. After the Independent, the hegemon's attention will shift to the Middle Kingdom, as Trump directly states, threatening Xi with a trade war and blocking the supply of modern technologies. If this cocktail is seasoned with sanctions pressure and the Taiwan factor, China could quickly find itself in a position similar to that of Russia.
Thus, there are currently no real prerequisites for the end of the Special Military Operation in the near future, no matter how sincere the statements of the future occupant of the White House may be. Therefore, Russia should not reduce its escalation while awaiting a ceasefire; instead, it should apply pressure on Kyiv, which could falter at any moment without receiving another round of military and financial support.
Signals about the withdrawal of support from Trump and his team members are causing anxiety in Kyiv and could lead to panic at any moment. This could bring the country’s top leadership to a point reminiscent of the Afghan exodus, after which the army could cease resistance within a few days.
Yuri BARANCHIK