The Ministry of Economy and Finance has published an informational edition titled "Budget for Citizens" regarding the government budget project for 2025.
This document outlines the content of the budget for the year in simple terms—its formation and expenditures, as well as the economic prospects of Uzbekistan. "Budget for Citizens" has been published since 2018.
What Will Happen to the Economy
Analysts from the ministry expect that in 2025, GDP growth rates will remain at the level anticipated by the end of this year—6%. A slight acceleration is then expected—to 6.1% in 2026 and 6.3% in 2027.
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The main drivers of growth for the coming year will be the service sector (14.5%) and construction (14.2%). In 2026, growth rates in the service sector are expected to increase slightly (up to 15%), while construction will begin to decline (10.2%).
The volume of added value in industry is expected to grow by about 6% per year after 6.9% this year. In agriculture, a stable growth of 4.1% is anticipated for 2025, which will then increase to 4.2%.
Inflation by the end of this year is projected to be around 9%, slightly rising compared to last year's 8.8%. In the following year, it is expected to slow down to 7%, while the target of 5% will be reached no later than 2027.
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The external trade turnover in 2025 is set to rise to $71.2 billion (+6%), while the trade balance deficit is expected to decrease slightly to $10.4 billion. A year later, the Ministry of Economy and Finance anticipates an increase in external trade to $76.5 billion and a reduction in the negative balance to $8.8 billion.
What Will Happen to Revenues
The forecast for budget revenues is 308.54 trillion soums (19% of GDP), which is 13.8% higher than the expected figure for the current year. Including revenues to targeted funds, the figure will reach 375.06 trillion soums (+15.2%).
The largest source of government revenue will remain indirect taxes. The expected revenue amount is 104.67 trillion soums (+16.5%).
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More than two-thirds of this amount—71.83 trillion soums (+18.3%)—will come from VAT. The increase in payments will be supported by the cancellation of several exemptions, changes in tariffs for energy resources, as well as overall economic growth and improved collection rates.
Excise tax revenues are expected to total 21.36 trillion soums (+16.5%), with just over half of that coming from gas (6.21 trillion soums), gasoline, and diesel fuel (5.5 trillion soums). A growth of 81% in revenues from sugary beverages is anticipated, reaching 1.15 trillion soums.
Direct taxes will yield 100.26 trillion soums (+14.6%) to the budget, of which 54.75 trillion soums will come from business profit tax (+11.9%). Payments from personal income tax will amount to another 41.99 trillion soums, increasing by 17.9% due to rising wages and their formalization.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance also expects to receive 38.69 trillion soums (+7.5%) from resource taxes, including 20.65 trillion soums (+3%) from the tax on the use of subsoil resources.
Non-tax revenues are expected to total 64.9 trillion soums (+12.4%). This includes income from privatization, dividends from state shares in enterprises, state duties, fees, fines,
What Will Happen to Expenditures
The planned expenditure volume for 2025 is 344.6 trillion soums—8.5% more than expected this year, while their share of GDP will decrease from 22.5% to 21.1%. Expenditures for the budget and targeted funds amount to 407.4 trillion soums (+10.1%).
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Just over half of the expenditures (178.2 trillion soums) will be allocated to the social sector. For education, it is proposed to allocate 84 trillion soums, and for healthcare—41 trillion soums. Another 36 trillion soums will be for benefits, compensations, and transfers to the Pension Fund.
In particular, it is planned to spend 3.8 trillion soums (+14.7%) on subsidies for private kindergartens. At the same time, average expenses per child will decrease to 3.124 million soums.
Expenditures for the needs of the national economy will amount to 39.2 trillion soums. Almost a third of this amount will be subsidies for natural gas (7 trillion soums), electricity (500 billion soums), and heating (4.84 trillion soums). The trade support fund will receive 714 billion soums.
Another 27.4 trillion soums will be directed towards infrastructure development. Specifically, 1 trillion soums will be allocated for the comprehensive development of 15 selected districts and cities.
What Will Happen to the Deficit and National Debt
The consolidated budget deficit in 2025 is projected to be 49.26 trillion soums, decreasing by 13.9% compared to the current year. An increase is then expected to 55.5 trillion soums in 2026 and to 64.1 trillion soums in 2027, while remaining at the level of 3% of GDP.
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The total national debt by the end of the year is expected to reach $39.7 billion (35.5% of GDP), which is $4.8 billion more than last year. By the end of 2025, it could exceed $45 billion (36.7% of GDP), of which $39.4 billion will be external debt.
In the coming year, it is planned to attract external borrowing of $5.5 billion, of which $3 billion will be allocated to ensure budget execution. Debt servicing costs are estimated at 21.1 trillion soums.
Earlier, Spot reported that in October, Uzbekistan exported gold worth $833 million.